The incidence of coronavirus in Russia and St. Petersburg is breaking all records. On Sunday, January 30, the indicators again updated the historical maximum : 121,000 new infected in the country and more than 17,000 in the Northern capital. And this is not the limit. As Viktor Zakharov, head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Energy Systems, head of the Center for Intelligent Logistics at St. Petersburg State University, told Komsomolskaya Pravda in St. Petersburg, the maximum is yet to come.
“We predict that, taking into account the observed growth dynamics in the number of new cases of the disease, in the middle of the second decade of February, the number of cases per day in the country may cross the mark of 160,000,” the scientist stated. – “Omicron” will influence the growth of incidence by analogy with Europe, up to February 15 or later, and a decline is possible by the end of the month. But to be convinced of my conclusions, we must wait a few more days. Given that in Moscow over the past day the number of cases has decreased, the decline may come even faster.
Recall that Viktor Zakharov has repeatedly made forecasts on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia. And the forecasts are successful: for example, he warned about the beginning of the fifth wave in January of this year. True, initially the figure was 110,000 cases per day in February, but Omicron decided not to wait, and the forecast came true a week earlier.
In his calculations, the scientist relies on a mathematical model that allows you to track the situation with the incidence of a new infection for up to a month. Viktor Zakharov leads a group of researchers who developed a mathematical model called CIR or Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed – from English “confirmed cases”, “infected”, “excluded” – recovered or died. It allows, due to new methods of predicting the future values of its parameters, to more accurately predict the spread of coronavirus for up to a month.
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